2013-02-27 – I always feel betrayed when the weather forecast turns out right.

As I write this, the jury is out. The snow is falling. If it stops now, it will be two to three inches. Kinda at the low end of the forecast of three to seven (depending on who you listen to). If it keeps going, the forecast could be dead on. That’s a rare thing with snow forecasts, at least in the Chicago area. But they have to be right once in a while, so you don’t get confident in your disbelief.

Dylan says: “You don’t need a weather man to know which way the wind blows.”

They say that, if you rely on tomorrow being the same weather as today, your will be right more often than the weather man.

They say that, if the weather man would actually look outside before making a forecast, the forecasts could be improved simply by rejecting the obviously ridiculous forecasts.

That may have happened today. Earlier this week I was hearing forecasts of much greater snowfalls. This morning, however, the number of inches forecast began to drop precipitously. One of the things that makes a huge snowfall seem improbable is the fact that the temperature will be over freezing. So we may get rain instead of snow.

Forecasters like to play the role of your mom. They like to tell you to bundle up. They like to tell you to be careful. They like to warn you of all the dire weather emergencies, on the slightest of cause. No one calls them out when the weather turns out to be not quite as bad. You don’t call out your mom for telling you to be careful.

And you mostly take the advice. You wear warm clothes. Or you don’t go out at all.

* * *

UPDATE: This was written at about 6:30 Tuesday evening. As of 5:30 Wednesday morning there has been no additional measurable snowfall. Yesterday’s shoveled walks remain shoveled down to the concrete but for a very thin layer of slush.

My fear that the weather men would be right for once was unfounded. My report was premature.

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