2012-11-12 – No snow yet. The forecast for this morning was “light snow possible.” It’s not snowing, of course. If you would have drilled down into the forecast you would have seen why. The temperature isn’t low enough (upper thirties) and there’s no precipitation. That was part of the forecast, too. So it’s not a matter of changed conditions.
It’s the liberal media.
I once read that, if you forecast tomorrow’s weather as the same as today’s, you will be correct more often than the weather service. And if you just look out the window, you’ll improve on that success record even more.
I’m not sure you’d beat the weather service, but I’m sure you’d beat the newsified forecast. The newsified forecast is designed,not for accuracy, but for sensation. No accuracy is required. Only gullibility.
That’s why I always drill down when a forecast seems a little sketchy. Take today’s forecast, for example. It was almost 70 degrees yesterday. There was a shower at the end of the day and then winds. I believed the temperature was dropping. But enough for snow? I had to check. So I drilled down to the hourly forecast. No snow there. Only a small chance of precipitation. And the temperature was going to bottom out at 36. Cold yes. Snow now.
So where did the “snow possible” forecast come from? Anything’s possible. And the liberal media will always latch on to that. For sensation.
As winter approaches, let me give you my rule of thumb for interpreting newsified forecasts. A forecast of anything under two inches means: no snow. Above two inches, divide by three. So a three-inch forecast will result in one inch. A six-inch forecast will result in two inches. Above that, the divisor starts to drop to two. So a ten-inch forecast could be five actual inches.
But remember: you can always go to the detailed forecast to get closer to the truth. And always remember. Look outside! If they are forecasting a blizzard and it’s sunny and 80 degrees outside. They are probably wrong.